essay代写有限理性

2016-12-19 10:23

“有限理性”是现代决策理论的原理。这是一个重要的基石,经济学也是一个重要的贡献。新古典主义经济理论假定决策者“完全理性”。它还认为决策者倾向于采取最优策略,以最低的成本获取最大的利益。事实上,这是不能做的,应该用“管理员”的假设,而不是“理性人”的假设。因为在现实生活中很少有完全理性的假设前提,人们常常需要一定程度的主观判断,并做出决策(鲁伊·陈,Jingguo王,2011)。也就是说,个人或商业决策是在有限理性的条件下进行。完全理性的决策者寻求最佳行动,和有限理性导致他试图满足要求或满意。

信息的不完全性

信息可以帮助我们选择绝对合理的选择,当选择你需要各种备选方案的结果可能是完全的知识,但实际上我们经常在这方面的知识只有和片面的一部分,很难得到一个全面的了解一个特定的事情,有时得到的知识是虚假或错误的。

预测的难度

因为结果是未来尚未发生,所以我们不能说当评估正确与否,升值的解决方案只能是想象的结果和经验。价值判断是不完整和不可预测的。这使得我们的预测只是一个对未来的希望,实际情况如何,确切地说,我们无法预测。

结束可行性的困难

我们只能做出科学合理的“最优解”的基础上找到所有解决方案的可能性的绝对理性选择的替代方案,但是没有人能找到所有的候选人,尤其是对公司的一些更复杂的业务决策,面很广,参与信息,还远远不够,但所有可能的结果和方法。

"Limited rationality" is the principle of the modern decision-making theory. It is one of the important cornerstone, is also a major contribution to economics. Neoclassical economic theory assumes that the decision makers are "completely rational". It also thinks that decision makers tend to adopt the optimal strategy, maximum benefits with the minimum cost. In fact, this is can't do, should use the "administrator" assumption instead of "rational man" assumption. Because in real life there are rarely completely rational assumption precondition, people often require a certain degree of subjective judgment, and to make decisions (Rui Chen, Jingguo Wang, 2011). That is to say, personal or business decisions are to be carried out under the condition of limited rationality. Fully rational decision-maker to seek best course of action, and limited rationality lead to he sought to meet the requirements or satisfactory.

The incompleteness of information

Information can help us to choose alternatives to do absolutely reasonable, when options so you need to have the results of various alternatives may be full of knowledge, but in fact we often in this aspect of knowledge is only a part of and one-sided, it is hard to get a comprehensive knowledge about a particular thing, and sometimes get knowledge is false or wrong.

The difficulty of predicting

Because the result is in the future which hasn't happened yet, so we can't say when to evaluate their correct or not, the appreciation of the solution can only is the result of imagination and experience. Value judgment is not complete and unpredictable. This makes our forecast is only a hope for the future, actual situation how, exactly, we couldn't anticipate.

The difficulty of ending the feasibility

We can make scientific and reasonable "optimal solution" only on the basis of finding all solutions in the absolute rationality in the possibility of choice of all the alternatives, but no one can find all the candidates, especially for companies in some of the more complicated business decisions, noodles is very wide, involved in information, still far short of all the possible outcomes and approach are given.

essay代写 有限理性

2016-12-19 10:23

essay代写有限理性